Thursday, April 19, 2018

A Classic Question: Does Government Can Empower or Stifle?

If you look at the high-income countries of the world--the US and Canada, much of Europe, Japan, Australia--all of them have government which spend amounts equal to one-third or more of GDP (combining both central and regional or local government). Apparently, high-income countries have relatively large government. Conversely, when you look at some of the world's most discouraging and dismal economic situations--say, Zimbabwe, North Korea, or Venezuela--it seems clear that the decisions of the government have played a large role in their travails. So arises a classic question: In what situations and with what rules does government empower its people and economy, and under what situations and with what rules does the government stifle them?

Like all classic questions, only those who haven't thought about it much will offer you an easy answer. Peter Boettke instead offers a  thoughtful exploration of many of the complexities and tradeoffs in his Presidential Address to the Southern Economic Association, "Economics and Public Administration," available in the April 2018 issue of the Southern Economic Journal (84:4, pp. 938-959).

Boettke offers a reminder that a number of prominent economists have pondered the issue of how states can empower or become predatory. For example, here are reminders from a couple of Nobel laureates:
Douglass North [Nobel '93] in Structure and Change in Economic History (1981) ... said that the state, with its ability to define and enforce property rights, can provide the greatest impetus for economic development and human betterment, but can also be the biggest threat to development and betterment through its predatory capacity. James Buchanan [Nobel '86] in Limits of Liberty (1975) stated the dilemma that must be confronted as follows—the constitutional contract must be designed in such a way that empowers the protective state (law and order) and the productive state (public goods) while constraining the predatory state (redistribution and rent-seeking). If the constitutional contract cannot be so constructed, then economic development and human betterment will not follow.
Although Boettke doesn't make the point here, the authors of the US Constitution struggled as well with the idea that government was an absolute necessity, but finding a way for government to be controlled was also a necessity. As James Madison wrote in Federalist #51:
"If men were angels, no government would be necessary. If angels were to govern men, neither external nor internal controls on government would be necessary. In framing a government which is to be administered by men over men, the great difficulty lies in this: you must first enable the government to control the governed; and in the next place oblige it to control itself. A dependence on the people is, no doubt, the primary control on the government; but experience has taught mankind the necessity of auxiliary precautions."
This challenge of building a government that is strong, but not too strong, and strong only in certain ways while remaining weak in others, is not just a matter of writing up a constitution or design of a government. Plenty of governments act oppressively at times, or even a majority of the time, while having the form of elections and constitutional rights. The heart of the issue, Boettke argues, runs deeper than the formal structures of government, and down to the bedrock of the social institutions on which these forms of government are based. He writes:
"The observational genius of the 20th century Yogi Berra once captured the essence of this argument while watching a rookie ball player attempting to imitate the batting stance of Frank Robinson, the recent triple crown winner, when he advised, “if you can t imitate him, don t copy him.” ... The countries plagued by poverty cannot simply copy the governmental institutions of those that are not so plagued by poverty. They are constrained at any point in time by the existing institutional possibilities frontier, and thus must shift the institutional possibilities frontier as technology and human capital adjust to find the constitutional contract that can effectively empower the protective and productive state, while effectively constraining the predatory state."
Economists have often ducked or assumed this question of institution building. For example, most of the arguments that economists make about how markets function, or about how self-interested sellers and buyers may act as if ruled by an "invisible hand" to promote social welfare, are based on the assumption that a decently functioning government is hovering in the background. Boettke refers to an essay by Lionel Robbins and writes:
"Adam Smith and his contemporaries never argued that the individual pursuit of self-interest will always and everywhere result in the public interest, but  rather that the individual pursuit of self-interest within a specific set of institutional arrangements— namely well-defined and enforced private property rights—would produce such a result. Though as Robbins (ibid, p. 12) writes, “You cannot understand their attitude to any important concrete measure of policy unless you understand their belief with regard to the nature and effects of the system of spontaneous-cooperation.” The system of spontaneous-cooperation, or economic freedom, does not come about absent a “firm framework of law and order.” The “invisible  hand,” according to the classical economists, “is not the hand of some god or some natural agency independent of human effort; it is the hand of the lawgiver, the hand which withdraws from the sphere of the pursuit of self-interest those possibilities which do not harmonize with the public good” (Robbins 1965, p. 56).
"In other words, the market mechanism works as described in the theory of the “invisible hand” because an institutional configuration was provided for by a prior Non-Market Decision Making process. The correct institutions of governance must be in place for economic life to take place (within those institutions)."
When we move outside the realm of market transactions set against a backdrop of decently functioning government, social scientists find it harder to draw conclusions. "But what happens when we move outside the realm of the market economy? Public administration begins where the realm of rational economic calculation ends."

On one side, decisions made by public administration areunlikely to involve competitive producers, choices made by consumers between these producers, and a price mechanism. Nonetheless, public decisions still have tradeoffs, and still face questions of whether the marginal benefits of a certain action (or a change in spending) will outweigh the marginal costs. 

Moreover, we know from sad experience that public administration is subject to special interest pressures and being captured by those who are supposedly the subjects of the regulation. We know that a number of politicians and government workers (no need to quibble over the exact proportion) put a high priority on pursuing their own personal career self-interest. We know that when a private sector firm fails to provide what customers want, it goes broke and is replaced by other firms, but that when a part of government fails badly in providing what citizens want, the part of government does not disappear and instead typically claims that failure is a reason for giving it more resources to do the job. 

One approach to all these issues is to take what Boettke calls "the God s-eye-view assumption," in which the all-seeing, all-wise, and all-beneficent economist can see the path that must be taken. But if you instead are skeptical of economists (and others involved in politics), then Boettke points out that some questions about public administration must be faced.
"Those who favor public administration over the market mechanism must at least acknowledge the question raised earlier—how is government going to accomplish the task of economic management?What alternative mechanisms in public administration will serve the role that property, prices and profit and loss serve within the market setting?
"Let us consider the following example—a vacant piece of land in a down-town area of a growing city. The plot of land could be used as a garage, which would complement efforts to develop commercial life downtown. Or, it could be used to build a park, encouraging city residents to enjoy green space and outdoor activities. Alternatively, it could be used to locate a school which would help stimulate investment in human capital. All three potential uses are worthy endeavors. If this was to be determined by the market, then the problem would be solved via the price mechanism and the willingness and the ability to pay. But if led by government, the use of this land will need to be determined by public deliberation and voting. We cannot just assume that the “right”
decision on the use of this public space will bemade in the public arena. In fact, due to a variety of problems associated with preference aggregation mechanisms, we might have serious doubts as to any claim of “efficiency” in such deliberations. ...

"More recently, Richard Wagner, in Politics as a Peculiar Business (2016, p. 146ff), uses the example of a marina surrounded by shops, hotels, and restaurants—think of Tampa, Florida. The marina, shops, hotels, and restaurants operate on market principles, but the maintenance of the roads and waterways are objects of collective decision making. Road maintenance and waterway dredging, for example, will be provided by government bureaus, but how well those decisions are made will have an impact on the operation of the commercial enterprises, and the viability of the commercial enterprises will no doubt have influence on the urgency and care of these bureaucratic efforts."
Boettke argues that "the idea of a unitary state populated by omniscient and benevolent expert bureaucrats" should be rejected. He also argues that economists (and other social scientists) can be prone to casting themselves in the role of these omniscient and benevolent experts. He quotes from near the beginning of James Buchanan's  1986 Nobel lecture:  “Economists should cease proffering policy advice as if they were employed by a benevolent despot, and they should look to the structure within which political decisions are made.” 

We live in a complex world, and there absolutely is a need for expert advice in many areas. But there is also crying need for experts to go beyond arguing with each other, or insulting the opposition, or attempting to get a grip on the levers of political power. There is a need for economists and other experts to participate in and to respect a broader process of institution-building and participating in the social consensus. (In a small way, this "Conversable Economist" blog is an attempt to broaden the social conversation in a way that includes expert insight without overly deferring to it. )

Boettke cites some comments from yet another Nobel laureate along these lines: 
"Elinor Ostrom concludes her 2009 Nobel lecture by summarizing the main lessons learned in her intellectual journey, and they are that we must “move away from the presumption that the government must” solve our problems, that “humans have a more complex motivational structure and more capability to solve social dilemmas” than traditional theory suggests, and that “a core goal of public policy should be to facilitate the development of institutions that bring out the best in humans ... ”  .  Self-governing democratic societies are fragile entities that require continual reaffirmation by fallible but capable human beings. “We need to ask,” Elinor Ostrom continued, “how diverse polycentric institutions help or hinder the innovativeness, learning, adapting, trustworthiness, levels of cooperation of participants, and the achievement of a more effective, equitable and sustainable outcomes at multiple scales." 

Wednesday, April 18, 2018

Global Debt Hits All-Time High

"At $164 trillion—equivalent to 225 percent of global GDP—global debt continues to hit new record highs almost a decade after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Compared with the previous peak in 2009, the world is now 12 percent of GDP deeper in debt, reflecting a pickup in both public and nonfinancial private sector debt after a short hiatus (Figure 1.1.1). All income groups have experienced increases in total debt but, by far, emerging market economies are in the lead. Only three countries (China, Japan, United States) account for more than half of global debt (Table 1.1.1)—significantly greater than their share of global output."

Thus notes the IMF in the April 2018 issue of Fiscal Monitor (Chapter 1: "Saving for a Rainy Day," Box 1.1, as usual, citations omitted from the quotation above for readability). Here's the figure and the table mentioned in the quotation.
The figure shows public debt in blue and private debt in red. In some ways, the recent increase doesn't stand out dramatically on the figure. But remember that the vertical axis is being measured as a percentage of the world GDP of about $87 trillion, so the rising percentage represents a considerable sum. 

Here's an edited version of the table, where I cut a column for 2015. The underlying source is the same as the figure above. As noted above, the US, Japan, and China together account for half of  total global debt. 

The rise in debt in China is clearly playing a substantial role here. Explicit central government debt in China is not especially high. But corporate debt in China has risen quickly: as the IMF notes of the period since 2009, "China alone explains almost three-quarters of the increase in global private debt."

In addition, China faces a surge of off-budget borrowing from financing vehicles used by local governments, which often feel themselves under pressure to boost their local economic growth. The IMF explains: 
 "The official debt concept [in China] points to a stable debt profile over the medium term at about 40 percent of GDP. However, a broader concept that includes borrowing by local governments and their financing vehicles (LGFVs) shows debt rising to more than 90 percent of GDP by 2023 primarily driven by rising off-budget borrowing. Rating agencies lowered China’s sovereign credit ratings in 2017, citing concerns with a prolonged period of rapid credit growth and large off-budget spending by LGFVs.
"The Chinese authorities are aware of the fiscal risks implied by rapidly rising off-budget borrowing and undertook reforms to constrain these risks. In 2014, the government recognized as government obligations two-thirds of legacy debt incurred by LGFVs (22 percent of GDP). In 2015, the budget law was revised to officially allow provincial governments to borrow only in the bond market, subject to an annual threshold. Since then, the government has reiterated the ban on off-budget borrowing by local governments, while more strictly regulating the role of the government in public-private partnerships and holding local officials accountable for improper borrowing. Given these measures, the authorities do not consider the LGFV off-budget borrowing as a government obligation under applicable laws.
"There is some uncertainty regarding the degree to which these measures will effectively curb off-budget borrowing. "
An underlying theme of the IMF report is that when an economy is in relatively good times, like the US economy today, it should be figuring out ways to put its borrowing on a downward trend for the next few years. A similar lesson applies to China, where there appears to be some danger that the high levels of borrowing from firms and from local governments are creating future risks.

One old lesson re-learned in the global financial crisis is that high levels of debt can be dangerous. If stock prices rise and then fall, investors will be unhappy that they lost their gains--but for many of them, the gains were only on paper, anyway. But debt is different. If circumstances arises where debts are less likely to be repaid, then financial institutions may well find it hard to raise capital, and will be pressured to cut back on lending. If borrowing was helping to hold asset prices high (including housing, land, or stocks), then a decline in borrowing can cause those asset prices to drop. Lower asset prices make it harder to repay borrowed money, tightening the financial crunch, and slowing an economy further. 

When global debt as a share of GDP is hitting an all-time high, it's worth paying attention to the risks involved.

Tuesday, April 17, 2018

Some Economics for Tax Filing Day

U.S. tax returns and taxes owed for 2017 are due today, April 17. To commemorate, I offer some connections to five posts about federal income taxes from the last few years. Click on the links if you'd like additional discussion and sources for of any of these topics.

1) Should Individual Income Tax Returns be Public Information? (March 30, 2015)
"My guess is that if you asked Americans if their income taxes should be public information, the answers would mostly run the spectrum from "absolutely not" to "hell, no." But the idea that tax returns should be confidential and not subject to disclosure was not a specific part of US law until 1976. At earlier periods of US history, tax returns were sometimes published in newspapers or posted in public places. Today, Sweden, Finland, Iceland and Norway have at least some disclosure of tax returns--and since 2001 in Norway, you can obtain information on income and taxes paid through public records available online."

2) How much does the federal tax code reduce income inequality, in comparison with  social insurance spending and means-tested transfers? 

"The Distribution and Redistribution of US Income" (March 20, 2018) is based on a report from the Congressional Budget Office, "The Distribution of Household Income, 2014" (March 2018).



From the post: "The vertical axis of the figure is a Gini coefficient, which is a common way of summarizing the extent of inequality in a single number. A coefficient of 1 would mean that one person owned everything. A coefficient of zero would mean complete equality of incomes.

"In this figure, the top line shows the Gini coefficient based on market income, rising over time.

"The green line shows the Gini coefficient when social insurance benefits are included: Social Security, the value of Medicare benefits, unemployment insurance, and worker's compensation. Inequality is lower with such benefits taken into account, but still rising. It's worth remembering that almost all of this change is due to Social Security and Medicare, which is to say that it is a reduction in inequality because of benefits aimed at the elderly.

"The dashed line then adds a reduction in inequality due to means-tested transfers. As the report notes, the largest of these programs are "Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (measured as the average cost to the government of providing those benefits); the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (formerly known as the Food Stamp program); and Supplemental Security Income." What many people think of as "welfare," which used to be called Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) but for some years now has been called Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF), is included here, but it's smaller than the programs just named.

"Finally, the bottom purple line also includes the reduction in inequality due to federal taxes, which here includes not just income taxes, but also payroll taxes, corporate taxes, and excise taxes."

3) "How Raising the Top Tax Rate Won't Much Alter Inequality" (October 23, 2015)

"Would a significant increase in the top income tax rate substantially alter income inequality?" William G. Gale, Melissa S. Kearney, and Peter R. Orszag ask the question in a very short paper of this title published by the Economic Studies Group at the Brookings Institution. Their perhaps surprising answer is "no."

The Gale, Kearney, Orszag paper is really just a set of illustrative calculations, based on the well-respected microsimulation model of the tax code used by the Tax Policy Center. Here's one of the calculations. Say that we raised the top income tax bracket (that is, the statutory income tax rate paid on a marginal dollar of income earned by those at the highest levels of income) from the current level of 39.6% up to 50%. Such a tax increase also looks substantial when expressed in absoluted dollars. By their calculations, "A larger hike in the top income tax rate to 50 percent would result, not surprisingly, in larger tax increases for the highest income households: an additional $6,464, on average, for households in the 95-99th percentiles of income and an additional $110,968, on average, for households in the top 1 percent. Households in the top 0.1 percent would experience an average income tax increase of $568,617."

In political terms, at least, this would be a very large boost. How much would it affect inequality of incomes? To answer this question, we need a shorthand way to measure inequality, and a standard tool for this purpose is the Gini coefficient. This measure runs from 0 in an economy where all incomes are equal to 1 in an economy where one person receives all income (a more detailed explanation is available here). For some context, the US distribution of income based on pre-tax income is .610. After current tax rates are applied, the after-tax distribution of income is .575.

If the top tax bracket rose to 50%, then according to the first round of Gale, Kearney, Orszag calculations, the Gini coefficient for after-tax income barely fall, dropping to .571. For comparison, the Gini coefficient for inequality of earnings back in 1979, before inequality had started rising, was .435. ... 

Raising the top income tax rate to 50% brings in less than $100 billion per year. Total federal spending in 2015 seems likely to run around $3.8 trillion. So it would be fair to say that raising the top income tax rate to 50% might increase total federal revenues by about 2%.

4) The top marginal income tax rates used to be a lot higher, but what share of taxpayers actually faced those high rates,, and much revenue did those higher rates actually collect?

Compare "Top Marginal Tax Rates: 1958 vs. 2009" (March 16, 2012), which is based on a short report by Daniel Baneman and Jim Nunns,"Income Tax Paid at Each Tax Rate, 1958-2009," published by the Tax Policy Center. The top statutory tax rate in 2009 was 35%; back in 1958, it was about 90%. What share of taxpayer returns paid these high rates? Across this time period, roughly 20% of all tax returns owed no tax, and so faced a marginal tax rate of zero percent. Back in 1958, the most common marginal tax brackets faced by taxpayers were in the 16-28% category; since the mid-1980s, the most common marginal tax rate faced by taxpayers has been the 1-16% category. Clearly, a very small proportion of taxpayers actually faced the very highest marginal tax rates.



How much revenue was raised by the highest marginal tax rates? Although the highest marginal tax rates applied to a tiny share of taxpayers, marginal tax rates above 39.7% collected more than 10% of income tax revenue back in the late 1950s. It's interesting to note that the share of income tax revenue collected by those in the top brackets for 2009--that is, the 29-35% category, is larger than the rate collected by all marginal tax brackets above 29% back in the 1960s.



5) Did you know "How Milton Friedman Helped to Invent Tax Withholding" (April 12, 2014)?

The great economist Milton Friedman--known for his pro-market, limited government views--helped to invent government withholding of income tax. It happened early in his career, when he was working for the U.S. government during World War II, and the top priority was to raise government revenues to support the war effort. Of course, the IRS opposed the idea at the time as impractical.

Monday, April 16, 2018

The Share of Itemizers and the Politics of Tax Reform

Those who fill out a US tax return always face a choice. On one hand, there is a "standard deduction," which is the amount you deduce from your income before calculating your taxes owed on the rest. On the other hand, there are a group of individual tax deductions: for mortgage interest, state and local taxes, high medical expenses, charitable contributions, and others. If the sum of all these deductions is larger than the standard deduction, then a taxpayer will "itemize" deductions--that is, filling out additional tax forms that list all the deductions individually. Conversely, if the standard deduction is larger than the sum of all the individual deductions is not larger than the list of itemized deductions, then the taxpayer just uses the standard deduction, and doesn't go through the time and bother of itemizing.

In the last 20 years or so, typically about 30-35% of federal tax returns found it worthwhile to itemize deductions.
But the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed into law and signed by President Trump in December 2017 will change this pattern substantially. The standard deduction increases substantially, while limits or caps are imposed on some prominent deductions. As a result, the number of taxpayers who will find it worthwhile to itemize will drop substantially.

Simulations from the Tax Policy Center, for example, suggest that the total number of itemizers will fall by almost 60%, from 46 million to 19 million -- which means that in next year's taxes, maybe only about 11% of all returns will find it worthwhile to itemize.

Set aside all the arguments over pros and cons and distributional effects of the changes in the standard deduction and the individual deductions, and focus on the political issue. It seems to me that this dramatic fall in the number of taxpayers, especially if it is sustained for a few years, will realign the political arguments over future tax reform. If one-third or so of taxpayers are itemizing--and those who itemize are typically those with high incomes and high deductions who make a lot of noise--then reducing deductions will be politically tough. But if only one-ninth of taxpayers are itemizing, while eight-ninths are just taking the standard deduction, then future reductions in the value of tax deductions may be easier to carry out. It will be interesting to see if the political dynamics of tax reform shift along these lines in the next few years.

When Britain Repealed Its Income Tax in 1816

Great Britain first had an income tax in 1799, but then abolished it in 1816. In honor of US federal tax returns being due tomorrow, April 17, here's a quick synopsis of the story.

Great Britain was in an on-and-off war with France for much of the 1790s. The British government borrowed heavily and was short of funds. When Napoleon came to power in 1799, the government under Prime Minister William Pitt introduced a temporary income tax. Here's a description from the website of the British National Archives:
‘Certain duties upon income’ as outlined in the Act of 1799 were to be the (temporary) solution. It was a tax to beat Napoleon. Income tax was to be applied in Great Britain (but not Ireland) at a rate of 10% on the total income of the taxpayer from all sources above £60, with reductions on income up to £200. It was to be paid in six equal instalments from June 1799, with an expected return of £10 million in its first year. It actually realised less than £6 million, but the money was vital and a precedent had been set.
In 1802 Pitt resigned as Prime Minister over the question of the emancipation of Irish catholics, and was replaced by Henry Addington. A short-lived peace treaty with Napoleon allowed Addington to repeal income tax. However, renewed fighting led to Addington’s 1803 Act which set the pattern for income tax today. ...

Addington’s Act for a ‘contribution of the profits arising from property, professions, trades and offices’ (the words ‘income tax’ were deliberately avoided) introduced two significant changes:
  • Taxation at source - the Bank of England deducting income tax when paying interest to holders of gilts, for example
  • The division of income taxes into five ‘Schedules’ - A (income from land and buildings), B (farming profits), C (public annuities), D (self-employment and other items not covered by A, B, C or E) and E (salaries, annuities and pensions).
 Although Addington’s rate of tax was half that of Pitt’s, the changes ensured that revenue to the Exchequer rose by half and the number of taxpayers doubled. In 1806 the rate returned to the original 10%.
Pitt in opposition had argued against Addington’s innovations: he adopted them almost unchanged, however, on his return to office in 1805. Income tax changed little under various Chancellors, contributing to the war effort up to the Battle of Waterloo in 1815.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Britain's government was not enthusiastic about repealing the income tax even after the defeat of Napoleon. But there was an uprising of taxpayers. The website of the UK Parliament described it this way:
"The centrepiece of the campaign was a petition from the City of London Corporation. In a piece of parliamentary theatre, the Sheriffs of London exercised their privilege to present the petition from the City of London Corporation in person. They entered the Commons chamber wearing their official robes holding the petition.
"The petition reflected the broad nature of the opposition to renewing the tax. Radicals had long complained that ordinary Britons (represented by John Bull in caricatures) had borne the brunt of wartime taxation. Radicals argued that the taxes were used to fund 'Old Corruption', the parasitic network of state officials who exploited an unrepresentative political system for their own interests.
"However, the petitions in 1816 came from very different groups, including farmers, businessmen and landowners, who were difficult for the government to dismiss. Petitioners, such as Durham farmers, claimed they had patriotically paid the tax during wartime with 'patience and cheerfulness', distancing themselves from radical critics of the government.
"In barely six weeks, 379 petitions against renewing the tax were sent to the House of Commons. MPs took the opportunity when presenting these petitions, to highlight the unpopularity of the tax with their constituents and the wider public. ... Ministers were accused of breaking the promise made in 1799 when the tax was introduced as a temporary, wartime measure and not as a permanent tax. The depressed state of industry and agriculture was blamed on heavy taxation.
"The tax was also presented as a foreign and un-British measure that allowed the state to snoop into people's finances. As the City of London petition complained, it was an 'odious, arbitrary, and detestable inquisition into the most private concerns and circumstances of individuals'."
Also unsurprisingly, the repeal of the income tax led the British government to raise other taxes instead. The BBC writes: Forced to make up the shortfall in revenue, the Government increased indirect taxes, many of which, for example taxes on tea, tobacco, sugar and beer, were paid by the poor. Between 1811 and 1815 direct taxes - land tax, income tax, all assessed taxes - made up 29% of all government revenue. Between 1831 and 1835 it was just 10%."

There's a story that when Britain repealed its income tax in 1816, Parliament ordered that the records of tax be destroyed, so posterity would never learn about it and be tempted to try again. The BBC reports:
"Income tax records were then supposedly incinerated in the Old Palace Yard at Westminster. Whether this bonfire really took place we can't say. Several historians who have studied the period refer to the event as a story or legend that may have been true. Perhaps the most convincing evidence are reports that, in 1842, when Peel re-introduced income tax, albeit in a less contentious form, the records were no longer available. Another story is that those burning the records were unaware of the fact that duplicates had been sent for safe-keeping to the King's Remembrancer. They were then put into sacks and eventually surfaced in the Public Records Office."

Friday, April 13, 2018

The Global Rise of Internet Access and Digital Government

What happens if you mix government and the digital revolution? The answer is Chapter 2 of the April 2018 IMF publication Fiscal Monitor, called "Digital Government." The report offers some striking insights about access to digital technology in the global economy and how government may use this technology.

Access to digital services is rising fast in developing countries, especially in the form of mobile phones, which appears to be on its way to outstripping access to water, electricity, and secondary schools.

Of course, there are substantial portions of the world population not connected as yet, especially in Asia and Africa.
The focus of the IMF chapter is on how digital access might improve the basic functions of government taxes and spending. On the tax side, for example, taxes levied at the border on international trade, or value-added taxes, can function much more simply as records become digitized. Income taxes can be submitted electronically. The government can use electronic records to search for evidence of tax evasion and fraud.

On the spending side, many developing countries experience a situation in which those with the lowest income levels don't receive government benefits to which they are entitled by law, either because they are disconnected from the government or because there is a "leakage" of government spending to others.  The report cites evidence along these lines:
"[D]igitalizing government payments in developing countries could save roughly 1 percent of GDP, or about $220 billion to $320 billion in value each year. This is equivalent to 1.5 percent of the value of all government payment transactions. Of this total, roughly half would accrue directly to governments and help improve fiscal balances, reduce debt, or finance priority expenditures, and the remainder would benefit individuals and firms as government spending would reach its intended targets (Figure 2.3.1). These estimates may underestimate the value of going from cash to digital because they exclude potentially significant benefits from improvements in public service delivery, including more widespread use of digital finance in the private sector and the reduction of the informal sector."
I'll also add that the IMF is focused on potential gains from digitalization, which is  fair enough. But this chapter doesn't have much to say about potential dangers of overregulation, over-intervention, over-taxation, and even outright confiscation that can arise when certain governments gain extremely detailed access to information on sales and transactions. 

Thursday, April 12, 2018

State and Local Spending on Higher Education

"Everyone" knows that the future of the US economy depends on a well-educated workforce, and on a growing share of students achieving higher levels of education. But state spending patterns on higher education aren't backing up this belief. Here are some figures from the SHEF 2017: State Higher Education Finance report published last month by the State Higher Education Executive Officers Association.

The bars in this figure shows per-student sending on pubic higher education by state and local government from all sources of funding, with the lower blue part of the bar showing government spending and the upper green part of the bar showing spending based on tuition revenue from students. The red line shows enrollments in public colleges, which have gone flat or even declined a little since the Great Recession.

This figure clarifies a pattern that is apparent from the green bars in the above figure: the share of spending on public higher education that comes from tuition has been rising. It was around 29-31% of total spending in the 1990s, up to about 35-36% in the middle of the first decade of the 2000s, and in recent years has been pushing 46-47%. That's a big shift in a couple of decades.
The reliance on tuition for state public education varies wildly across states, with less than 15% of total spending on public higher ed coming from tuition in Wyoming and California, and 70% or more of total spending on public higher education coming from tuition in Michigan, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Hampshire, and Vermont.

There are lots of issues in play here: competing priorities for state and local spending, rising costs of higher education, the returns from higher education that encourage students (and their families) to pay for it, and so on. For the moment, I'll just say that it doesn't seem like a coincidence that the tuition share of public higher education costs is rising at the same time that enrollment levels are flat or declining.